I went back through the biggest winners of 2025. Western Digital kept showing up. The marked run was 914% in 301 days. Forty-three weeks. The hard part was never the entry. It was staying with the trade.

Why this name

Western Digital sells memory. Hard drives and flash, sold into more than one market. AI has been eating the bits, and the shortage showed up in the price across a myriad of these names. Memory got expensive because the supply was spoken for.

The fundamentals of these companies in the “AI Trade” are off the charts. WD earnings went triple digit more than once. September 2024 was up 201%. December 2024 was up 357%. March 2025 was up 186%. It cooled after that, then came back to 100% in March 2026 and 114% in June 2026. Sales were still down from the year before all through the 2025 base. They turned up in 2026, 45% and then 44%. Return on equity was 86%, then 131%.

Traders obsess about the pattern. The pattern is how we get in, but the growth is why a stock can keep going. I want liquid leaders whose earnings and sales are actually moving, because that is the customer showing up in the numbers. A company can do interesting work and still be early. If the orders are not there, I do not care how good the demo looks.

Memory in 2025 had the orders.

What the market was doing

From February 2025 into the April low, the Nasdaq was in a real steep downtrend. About two months, and well under the 200-day. That is a bad place to be buying breakouts.

The break was the tariff tantrum. April 2 was the announcement. The next two sessions were the slide. A few days later the pause put up a 12% day on the Nasdaq. Crowd one way, then the other, in a week.

Two follow-through days sit in that mess. One failed. One worked.

The first follow-through is where I would have tried to get involved, but backed away after a close below the low of the day.

The second FTD worked like a charm.

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The setup

On April 25, Western Digital was not a trade I would have taken. It was coming straight off the bottom with the market, and it had no base. I walked it day by day and asked myself (honestly) where I would have bought it. I do not see a clean spot.

My setup showed up in August.

From the April follow-through, the stock ran about 110% in 77 sessions. Then it stopped and built a base. I want two or three weeks sideways.

I interpret the base in the spirit of a high-tight flag. A textbook pole is four to eight weeks, and this run was considerably longer.

I need to be able to draw the flag when I buy a breakout. A hard run, then a short tight range off the top, where buyers and sellers agree on a price and the gain gets digested. The breakout from that range is my best entry. The same drawing shows up in a high-tight flag, the handle of a cup-with-handle, a flat base, a double bottom.

On the way into that flag, the stock respected the 10-day. If I buy it, the 10-day is the first trailing stop. Stocks pick their own average.

The run

914% in 301 days. Forty-three weeks.

The 10-day and the 21-day are the short trail. If I am trying to sit with it as a position, the line is the 10-week, which is the 50-day on the daily. There was no decisive close under that longer average for the whole run.

I cannot sit full size and watch the account draw down into the 10-week. I have tried. I do not have that personality. So the rule I would have used is three sales:

• A close through the 10-day, I sell a third.

• A close through the 21-day, I sell another third.

• The last third stays until the 10-week breaks.

If it gives me another flag, I add back to full. If that add fails, I am back to the core. The original third does not come off until the weekly line breaks. That is how I would have tried to still be there for a move this long without pretending I can white-knuckle it.

The relative strength line was at a new high on the August breakout, and it kept making new highs the whole way up. That line is the stock against everything else. When it is poking out to new highs, institutions are spending time there.

The top

The top was early June 2026. The top tick was June 18.

The topping action was volatile, and it was a downtrend. Lower highs, lower lows after a climatic run.

July 2, 2026 is the bar I would tape to the screen. It traded above the 21-day, then dropped about 10% and briefly traded under the 50-day. A clear change in character.

I would like to think I catch that. Honestly, if I had been up a huge amount, the volatility would have bothered me before the textbook signal did. I think I keep the core until the 10-week breaks. I think I am gone on the rest once the 21-day fails that hard.

What I take from it

The stock was already up about 100% when the August flag formed. The campaign finished at 914%.

A 100% move feels like a lot while you are in it. It can still be the start. Big winners can go a lot further than you think.

The rule that makes the hold possible, for me, is the scale-out. Ten-day, then 21-day, then the 10-week for the piece I am willing to sit with. Add back only on another flag.

August 22 was the breakout. June 18 was the top tick. July 2 was the day the stock stopped behaving.

Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:

• Market Pulse. Character change held. Power trend is on deck.

• Crypto.

• Biotech and healthcare.

• Semiconductors and memory.

• Software, space, energy, and the mags.

• Honorable Mentions. A longer list of names worth watching.

• Closing Thought. Set the rebuy the same way you set the stop.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

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Market Pulse

Last week was an inflection point in the market. The Nasdaq went through the resistance we have been watching since early June. That is a character change.

The character-change day was Monday, September 21. During the week the market tested those lows, put in an upside reversal, and is now set up to break into new highs. All of the moving averages are ascending and in order.

We have seven days with the low above the 21-day. Three more days above that average and the Nasdaq is in a power trend. This is power trend week, unless the market completely collapses.

A power trend changes out posture. Defensive or moderately offensive becomes very offensive. Grow mode. For me that opens margin and more aggressive scenarios. We still have to see the follow-through.

The boogeyman is breadth and rising yields. Plenty of wall of worry. I am not trading the rates debate. Price action already has all of that in it.

Leaders are performing. We stalk pullbacks this week and stay careful with the memory names into Wednesday earnings.

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Software had a cleaner revolution when Salesforce took the work from Oracle and Siebel. People made fortunes packaging cloud, but AI does not package the same way. It belongs to everyone. The frontier labs will keep fighting over who gets paid for the model but that is their problem.

For the rest of us, the money is in the companies building the infrastructure that makes the technology run.

The market already ran that trade once in 2026. April into June was the rip. Then the AI group went into a correction for about three months. A lot of the leaders gave back as much as 50% from the highs and built bases, which is very constructive for investors.

Monday, September 21st, was an inflection point in the Nasdaq. The market had spent three months chopping sideways, but Monday changed the character. Real buying power coming back into AI:

So how do we get involved?

I’ll cover five groups and the leaders inside each one. You can own the ETF and keep it broad, or you can do what I do and drill into the names. Both are valid.

Exact levels and the full plan live in New Stock Market Ideas, the weekly trading plan that goes out Sunday before the close.

How we trade these names: This is not financial advice. Do your own research. Managing risk comes first. Never blindly buy a name from a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

Semiconductors:

This is the backbone of the AI trade. The semiconductors are the chips that train the models and run them, and if you want one chart for the health of the group, this is it.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF is the proxy for the space. It holds names like AMD, Nvidia, Intel, Arm, Marvell, and Semtech, which are the names driving the group forward. Some of those stocks are more volatile than others, and the ETF is there if you do not want to pick among them.

The chart is building a big cup base. The pivot inside that base is $600, and the ETF is trading right at that level after breaking resistance. That is an inflection point. I would expect this to keep building as long as it stays above all of the moving averages, which it is, and it is well above the 200-day, which is the line in the sand for whether we are in a long-term uptrend.

Full disclosure: I own Marvell in this group.

Memory:

Chips do not work without memory. Training runs eat it, inference eats it, and high-bandwidth memory is the bottleneck inside the rack.

The Roundhill Memory ETF is the proxy. It holds SanDisk, Micron, SK Hynix, and Silicon Motion, and the big dogs in the group are Micron and SanDisk. SanDisk had one of the greatest model-book runs I have seen, and Micron was right behind it. These are stocks that ran thousands of percent, went through a base, and reset. When a stock builds a base after a move like that, you get another chance to work higher from a cleaner starting point.

The pivot in DRAM is $62.04, and we are trading right at that level. The job now is to define support for the group over $60. All of the moving averages are in order and trending higher, which puts this in a constructive place.

I own Micron here. The last time this trade was set up, I was in SanDisk. One thing to watch is that Micron reports next Wednesday, September 30th. That will put volatility into the group and should tell us something about the near term.

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Neoclouds:

Neoclouds sit one layer above the chips. They buy the GPUs, stand up the buildings, and rent the compute, so you do not have to own the cluster. You rent the hours.

The Roundhill Neocloud ETF is the proxy, and the leadership in here is Nebius, IREN, and CoreWeave. This sleeve is lagging memory and the semis. The chart is a mess right now. It is sitting in the middle of a sideways consolidation and does not have a pattern I would name. The actionable area is around $27, and it has to clear that range before I would treat it as a trade.

It stays in the back pocket.

Power & Infrastructure:

Data centers do not run on fairy dust. They run on electricity, which means cooling, switchgear, turbines, and grid work. That is the power sleeve.

The Defiance AI & Power Infrastructure ETF is the proxy, with names like GE Vernova and Eaton on the electrical side of the buildout. This one has been consolidating since the end of June in what you can call a descending triangle. It has found consistent support around the 200-day, but it is still underneath the 50-day.

I think this is constructive above $30. The character change I want is a move back over the 50-day that can hold as support. That is the entry. Until then, this stays in watching mode. As the AI trade works higher, this group has to come with it, because the buildings do not turn on without the power.

Cybersecurity:

I included cybersecurity in a post about the AI trade because of where the landscape is heading next, which is agents. It started with OpenClaw. After that, it was obvious the frontier labs would ship their own solutions, and it became a race for user loyalty before the big labs arrived. Grokbot came first. Meta is out with Muse. OpenAI and Anthropic are next, and those will change how agents get deployed.

I use Grokbot, and I find it hard to go back. Agents that work inside my tools and through my day have a little Iron Man energy to them.

Agents will spend money, talk to other agents, and eventually get out. Hugging Face already had an incident. The world is trying to figure out how to keep that contained, and that is a cybersecurity problem. That is why this group belongs on an AI map.

The group has already broken out. The pivot was around $101, and it is trading at $104, which makes it a touch extended here. I would look at the individual stocks rather than chasing the ETF. The support I want is the 50-day. Pullbacks to that average would be normal, and those are the areas where I would add or initiate.

The First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF holds names like Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Fortinet, and Zscaler.

I own $PANW.

ETF or the leaders

You can put exposure in the ETFs and keep the risk broader, or you can do what I do and research the leaders in these groups and trade those. Both work. It is a style choice.

Monday changed the character of the tape. Chips and memory are at their pivots, and those are the groups I want to keep closest. Neoclouds stay in the pocket until $27 clears. Power needs the 50-day back. Cyber already broke out, so the work there is in the individual names and in pullbacks to the 50-day.

Happy trading!

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Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:

• Market Pulse. Fourth trip through the 50-day, setup day at the line.

• Crypto.

• Space and software.

• Healthcare and biotech.

• AI and memory.

• Honorable Mentions. A longer list of names worth watching.

• Closing Thought. Show up with the lunch pail.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

Market Pulse

Really constructive week for the market, especially the Nasdaq 100 and the QQQ.

Fed day traded under the 50-day and undercut the lows going back to late August. Then it closed higher. Next day gapped up. Friday retested the short-term moving average and the market closed strong.

That Friday bar is a setup day. An up day where the market is testing resistance and is now set up for a breakout. We have not confirmed it. We have not broken out of the QQQ. The second half of the week was the part that matters.

We have been here before. This is the fourth time we have come through the 50-day with hopes of actually trending higher. Every time it has not worked. The market wears people out.

As I have said in prior plans, we show up with the lunch pail and the watchlist. Ready to add exposure when the market actually follows through. That tends to happen when everyone has given up. The market is built to disappoint the masses. Here we are with the lunch pail again…

I would not go on margin. I would not get super heavy until we break through this resistance, the black line on the QQQ and the same line on the Nasdaq. Very clear line in the sand. If we get through it, there is a real chance this trends higher into the fourth quarter.

What made the week better than the last few tries: the stocks followed. That is more important than the index sitting under a line.

The negatives are still there. Very few names are clean. A lot of wide and loose setups, not a lot of tight coiled ones. IWM is one of the better tells I use and it is not doing well. Breadth has not joined. We would like to see the Russell hold its recent lows and start to build a base. The S&P looks better. The equal-weighted S&P does not. Strength is concentrated in the mag 7 and in a short list of AI names that are showing real relative strength.

I am fully invested at this point. We take it day by day. If the market gives an expectation breaker to the downside, we cut the losses and pack it up.

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Fed day is finally over. Rates went up as everyone expected and now we look at what the market left us to work with.

This summer has been brutal if you are actively trading growth stocks. So many false starts.

The indexes need to be our traffic light. We wait for them to tell us the coast is clear, the wind is at our back, and it is time to add exposure again.

Today the S&P closed decisively under the 50-day. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are under it too. That is a red light in the way we trade.

We can not tune out on a red light. Nine out of ten stocks follow the market down. We look to keep track of the ones that do not. That is relative strength.

The picture that locked it for me is a basketball underwater. The market is the hand holding it down. When that pressure comes off, the ball fires to the surface. Those are the moves we want.

I wanted to cover five charts from five different themes. Exact levels and the full plan will be live in my weekly trading plan that goes out Sunday before the close.

Let’s get into the charts.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Do your own research. Managing risk comes first. Never blindly buy a name from a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

Space - $SPCX, SpaceX

Full disclosure: I own it.

IPO, two days up, then straight down. Recovered off the August lows, made a decent move, and has been building a tight sideways consolidation since.

$150 is the clear psychological level that is still relevant. $155 would be a real breakout.

It is consolidating tight, above the 10-day, the 21-day, and the 50-day. Extreme relative strength. I do not like it under the 21-day. I want that average to hold as it works higher but that still depends on the market.

Rockets, Starlink, The Elon complex. People hate Elon, so they skip Grok. Grokbot going mainstream changes that. If you respect Anthropic and OpenAI, this stack is in that fight and a lot of people are late because they do not want to admit it.

Sales were +92% last quarter. Deeper work will be in Sunday’s plan. I like it here as long as the 21-day holds.

Software - $ZETA, Zeta Global

Full disclosure. I own it.

Zeta puts AI into marketing workflows. Run a campaign, get a 360 read on new markets, and feed the team data they can actually use. I built my career in software and I know an exciting product when I see it.

Marketing is my favorite ICP. Those teams get budget to drive pipeline and they are relatively easy to close. Zeta is selling into that, and they are making a real splash in AI.

Last quarter: sales +44% ($443M vs $308M). First positive GAAP quarter, $0.03. Twentieth straight beat-and-raise.

The stock does not give anything back. Market chops, and this one stays in an uptrend above the 21-day. Best relative strength I am seeing in the group. One to watch.

Biotech - $MRNA, Moderna

Greatest story of the year. Phase 3 in melanoma, with Merck. Personalized mRNA vaccine on top of Keytruda. Recurrence-free survival hit. Distant metastasis-free survival hit. They are on their way to something that looks a lot like curing cancer. That is the best catalyst I could possibly think of.

The chart is a dream after a 177% move. Huge thrust on the news, then sideways. High-tight flag. Strong and one to watch.

Deeper levels are in the Sunday plan.

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Chips - $AMD, Advanced Micro Devices

Acting great inside the AI group. Above the 50-day and starting to get back over the rest of the moving averages. Sideways from there. Pattern I want to keep on the sheet.

Non-GAAP EPS: +246% ($1.66 vs $0.48). Sales: +50% ($11.54B vs $7.69B). Data center: +107% ($6.7B).

Dell is the other AI name looking fantastic right now. Strong uptrend. Not the chart for this post but wanted to mention it just so it is on your radar.

Health plus software - $HTFL, HeartFlow

We had biotech with Moderna and software with Zeta. This is the merge of both groups. AI on heart disease. CT scan in, 3D model of the arteries out, so doctors can see plaque without going in. Feel-good story that is also a real product.

Sales last quarter: +48%. Accelerating.

The pattern is textbook. William O’Neil studied the high-tight flag and put it in his book, “How to Make Money in Stocks”.

Tight sideways. Strong price action. One to watch.

The first trade is the market!

Everything above depends on the tape.

If there is a trade this week or next, the first one I want is the market itself. Qs back above the 50-day is the minimum before I start initiating again. I will not go to full size until we are over the 21-day. That is the first marker. Stocks come after.

Sunday we go deeper. Exact levels, pivot points, and the full list.

This is how I am seeing it. Take what is useful.

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Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:

• Market Pulse. Four down days, the 50-day held, 27,000 is still the line.

• The market trade.

• Space and software.

• AI and memory.

• Healthcare and biotech.

• Crypto and other.

• Honorable Mentions. A longer list of names worth watching.

• Closing Thought. Trade the market first.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

Market Pulse

Four of five days were down on the Nasdaq. The first four days of the week. We went through the 10-day, the 21-day, and the 50-day, then found support at the 50-day, closed above it, and gapped so Friday’s low sat back above the 21-day.

Four days of discouraging price action. One day of encouraging price action at the end.

Net-net we ran into the same resistance we have been watching. Marked on the chart at about 26,700. Call it 27,000. We need to punch through that area to resume an uptrend.

FOMC is next week. That could be a catalyst through the range. It could also be noise. The stocks are giving false moves. The market is not breaking the range.

Trade the market first. I have three open positions. I am not opening any new stock trades until the Nasdaq confirms a new uptrend.

Futures are down, as is sentiment right now. We need a positive expectation breaker in the major indexes.

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This is a study of a model book move in the first seven months of 2026.

From the left side of that run at $244 to the high at $2,354.39, the stock ran +865%. I bought the April 8 follow-through day and sold June 17 around $1,970.

I study model-book stocks so the next one is less of a stranger. Where it found support. Where it set up again. Where the character changed. When you are in one, every drop feels like the end. After you review a completed winner, the 10-day and the 21-day start to mean a lot more.

Why this name

SanDisk is NAND flash. Memory cards and SSDs, then the AI storage binge. You do not need a 10-K to feel it. Walk into a Best Buy. Hard drives and memory are expensive because the supply is spoken for. Datacenter and on-device AI are eating the bits. That is why the earnings and sales went vertical once the shortage bit.

The other half of the study is the market. I am putting the Nasdaq chart from April 8 next to the SanDisk chart for reference. A leading stock breaking out while the market is turning from a correction into an uptrend is where most of the money gets made. Those stretches are rare. That is the point of marking them.

The setup

Late 2025 was already a run. Then the stock went sideways and built a cup-with-handle over 52 days.

It broke out of that base on January 2, 2026.

Live fundamentals that morning:

Non-GAAP EPS: -33% ($1.22 vs $1.81)
Sales: +23% ($2.31B vs $1.88B)

Sales were accelerating. Earnings were not. From that breakout it never undercut the breakout day or the 10-day. It held the 10-day for the entire first leg, up to an intermediate top around $725. That was +151% in 28 days, 19 trading sessions.

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Another chance to buy

Then it built the base this study is really about. A double bottom starting February 4. 37 days. 26 sessions. After a 151% run, that is a normal pause.

It broke out of the double bottom on March 16 on a 6% gap. Looked buyable if the market had been in a better position. I would have been buying it there. It ran to $777, then failed. Undercut the gap day, fell to $558.58, and closed below the 50-day.

That is a sell for me every time. At that point the chart looks like a failure. It lined up with the worst of the Iran news. The market was under real pressure. It felt like the world was ending.

Six days later the stock recovered and broke out again. April 8. Market follow-through day (which is the key here).

Breakaway gap out of that same consolidation, +9.86%. Close: $780.90. That is the day I bought it. Here is what the Nasdaq looked like:

Live SNDK fundamentals on April 8:

Non-GAAP EPS: +404% ($6.20 vs $1.23)
Sales: +61% ($3.03B vs $1.88B)

Now the earnings had caught up to the sales. Now we have motion.

The move

From the April 8 gap, the stock stayed in an uptrend and used an ascending 10-day as support. It did not close below it. When it tagged the line, it bounced.

April 8 to the next intermediate top at $1,600 was +105% in 33 days.

Then a pullback. It closed below the 10-day and formed a bull flag. Short base. The 21-day held the whole time. It never traded below that average.

Breakout of that flag: May 21.

Live fundamentals on May 21:

Non-GAAP EPS: +7,903% ($23.41 vs -$0.30)
Sales: +251% ($5.95B vs $1.70B)

Year-ago EPS was a loss, so the percent is the ugly number a screen will print. The sales number is the clean one. Either way, the fundamental case had gone from fine to violent.

That May 21 breakout is where I added. The 21-day still untouched.

The top

From May 21 it ran to $2,354.39.

On the way it closed under the 10-day for four straight days. Abnormal. That started after June 5. June 5 was a character change in the whole market. The AI trade got hit. Sandisk and a lot of the names around it started acting different.

Still no close below the 21-day. Several closes below the 10-day. That is the signal to cut size. Something had changed.

Then a climactic push into the high.

I closed my trade on June 17. Abnormal price action and undercuts of prior days. Sold around $1,970.

Two days later it tagged $2,354.39 on an exhaustion gap. I thought I made a terrible mistake. But then it got wide and loose.

Down 13%, Up 22%, Down 10%, Up 11%.

Then the 21-day finally broke. Close down 14% that day. If the June 5 character change did not get you out, that day does.

From there it gapped down through the 50-day and kept going. Low of the decline: $998.19.

It has set up again since. That is a different study.

What this is for

I remember being in this stock. Every dip felt like the end of the trade. Then you step back and look at the averages. It did not close below the 21-day until it was done. That is the exercise. You study the winners so the next one feels more comfortable.

I hope you enjoyed this walkthrough, as I plan to continue these type of studies in the future. I also urge you to go back and look at it yourself. If you find something that I missed, please let me know!

If SanDisk makes another model book run, I will be sure to cover it again in the series.

Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:

• Market Pulse. Nasdaq flat under 27,000, Russell and the 21-day, and what that does to new buys.

• Crypto and related.

• Space and newer issues.

• Software and platforms.

• AI and memory.

• Healthcare and biotech.

• Honorable Mentions. A longer list of names worth watching.

• Closing Thought. Show up. Be willing to leave.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

Market Pulse

The Nasdaq tells the story the clearest this week. The general market is in a flat base. We keep coming up against resistance at 27,000. That is the line in the sand for this leg higher (if there is one).

The good news is the moving averages are in order. The 10-day is above the 21-day, the 21-day is above the 50-day, and the 50-day is above the 200-day. All of them are somewhat uptrending after the latter half of last week. We are built right underneath that 27,000 level.

Does that mean we break out? No. The chart’s own range still points toward another test of 26,000 if nothing changes. A move through 27,000 would be the positive expectation breaker on the long side.

Will we chop more?

Probably. We still have to show up with the lunch pail for the case where the market leaves this range. Stocks under the surface are already in the first day or two of that setup. Show up. Participate. And be ready to cut fast if this is a false rally.

Watch the Russell too. Risk-on gets cleaner if that index can get back above its 21-day.

September is the worst month of the year seasonally. If a real run is coming, history says October is the more likely window. That is not a forecast. It is a reminder to stay open to both outcomes.

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Someone posts the cashtag. Then they post the fundamental results of a former AI leader. Then they are taken aback by the price decline.

Every time.

Either they want the engagement or they are genuinely confused. Usually a bit of both. But here’s what they always say:

“The market mispriced this.”
“The market got this wrong.”

They can see the numbers. Sales. Margins. Growth rate. Return on equity. Cash flow. They cannot square that with a red day.

The concept that would save them a ton of money is simple.

The market is never wrong. Opinions are.

There is no law that says a blowout print has to be bought. Demand can dry up for a lot of reasons that have nothing to do with whether the quarter was good. Theme. General market. Something inside the company that is not in the release yet. An endless list.

Those things take time to show up in a filing. They show up in the price first.

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Buy with both. Sell with the chart.

When I buy, I use fundamentals to filter the list. Then I use the chart to time the entry, in a spot where I can keep risk defined.

When I sell, I do not wait for the fundamentals to catch up. By then you can be out of business.

I sell on the chart.

Credo is a recent example

Credo reported this week.

131% earnings growth year over year.
115% sales growth.
31% growth in return on equity.

Those are the numbers that get me interested in a growth stock. Those numbers are bonkers.

The stock had already found resistance at declining moving averages at the end of August. After the report it gapped down 20% and closed below the 200-day. Today, Thursday September 3rd, it found resistance at the 200-day again and closed lower on a day the QQQs were up 1.2%.

There’s a message in that.

Also, I want to be clear, this is no knock on Credo as a company. I’ve traded the name in the past, and I'm sure I will trade it again in the future. It just needs time to consolidate.

How much time? Who knows…

You do not sit underwater and wait for the story to fix the chart. I have it up here at 47% off the all-time high. That high was June 22nd. Not even three months ago.

You do not wait for that.

You sell broken support. You sell when institutions are not stepping in. Those are the signals. I laid them out here:

3 Sell Rules That Have Kept Me Alive in the Stock Market

The tape had the news first

There is a scene in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

The president of the company is on record. Everything is fine. Livermore is looking at the price and something is off. A few days later the board skips the dividend.

The tape had the information before it was public.

That is why the sell is technical. Credo is just today’s version. This is not rare. It shows up constantly.

Price is what we get paid on. Worry about that first.

Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:

• Market Pulse. Russell under the 50-day after Friday’s engulfing reversal, and what that does to new buys.

• Software and platforms.

• Healthcare names.

• Space and newer issues.

• Crypto and related.

• Honorable Mentions. A longer list of names worth watching.

• Closing Thought. Sideways markets wear you out.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

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It’s easy to get conditioned with everything at our fingertips. Impulse buys get easy. We’re conditioned as consumers to do that. I know my wife is. She does that plenty with Amazon. There’s always an Amazon box.

In all seriousness, it’s a tale of where we are right now. Everything is accessible. AI and mobile make doing what you want easier than ever. Typically that’s great. In trading it hurts you more than it helps you.

It’s great that we have access to our platforms 24/7. There’s nothing in the way of us making mistakes or not sticking to our rules.

If you’ve ever read Atomic Habits by James Clear, you really want to control your environment. Make the good habits easy to do and the bad habits hard to do. For me a lot of the time that’s overtrading.

Weekend plan, midweek trade

It happens to me frequently. I’ll spend the weekend putting up the trading plan, looking at my trades, doing my screening, and planning out my entries. That’s the best way for me to trade. It’s the way I perform the best.

Then something shows up during the week that wasn’t on my radar. Maybe it’s my best setup. Maybe I just can’t pass it up. And I take the trade.

I haven’t run the data. I bet most of those trades don’t work out for me. If I aggregated them, I don’t think those are winning trades.

The operating system

I was reading Market Wizards and Lance Breitstein has a really interesting take. My trading has gotten very systematized. I have what I call a trading operating system.

I have a trading log. I log the trades and the setups. I’m tight with my average cost. I have a trade tracker. I have a way to track the indices and a weekly read so I know where we are from a general market perspective. I have a trade diary so I can gather my thoughts.

Now I’ve incorporated what I picked up from Lance. The Daily Report Card.

Going back to Atomic Habits, a tracker helps you maintain good habits. This was a perfect fit. I’ve been using it recently and I’ve seen a difference.

A through F

I give myself a grade every day.

A: Every trade is planned and I didn’t break any of my rules. 2 for 2. That’s an A.

B: I followed my rules but I did something that wasn’t in my plan. That’s a B day. That’s what I had today.

C: I did something out of my plan and I broke my rules on a particular trade.

F: I did something out of my plan and I broke the rules more than once. That’s a terrible day. That’s a compounding way to a drawdown.

You have to be honest with yourself. The important thing is being disciplined enough to do the report card. Here’s an example of an entry:

You have to be your own manager. There’s no boss in trading. Take off the trader hat. Put on the manager hat. Look at yourself objectively, almost like an out-of-body experience. Weird way to put it, but you have to be outside yourself for a second and be critical of yourself. Intellectually honest.

That’s the number one thing. Being honest with the day.

If you have your trading plan written and posted, like I do on Substack, it’s easy. Is it in the trading plan? If it isn’t, you already know whether the day is an A, B, C, or F.

If the alert didn’t go off, it wasn’t the plan

What I’ve done to keep myself from breaking the rules is simple. Screening and the plan get set every night. It’s okay if you find a new opportunity during the week. That’s fine. At least the day before, set the alert.

I think if you implement that, it’ll do wonders for your trading.

If you need help with a trading plan and you want to get started, subscribe. I’ll have one every week.

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Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:

• Market Pulse. Three indexes telling three different stories and what that means for sizing.

• Software leaders.

• Biotech leaders.

• AI names and related.

• Crypto, energy, and other.

• Honorable Mentions. A longer list of names worth watching.

• Closing Thought.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

Market Pulse

The three indexes are telling three different stories. A few weeks ago the Nasdaq poked above 26,000 after a clean consolidation and had a strong day on August 13 that looked like it would test the highs of the range. The rally lost steam. It pulled all the way back below the 21-day and undercut the follow-through day low. That was disappointing. We are now sitting right on top of the 50-day.

QQQ tells a slightly more disheartening version of the same story. Recent trading has been below the 50-day.

SPX looks better. It poked out to new all-time highs, digested them, and has found support at the 21-day.

What this means is mixed signals. The indexes are the traffic light for how much exposure to run. The actual story is always in the stocks. There is still a lot of damage under the surface in growth, especially the AI trade after the Nebius report and the chop that followed. Rotation into new leadership is possible and we have seen it before. Leadership right now is showing in software, biotech, energy, and crypto.

Until the Nasdaq can get back above the 21-day and start trending, we are trading smaller. New positions stay half to quarter size. If they gain traction we can add.

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$TEAM, Atlassian [HOLDING]

Clean gap-up follow-through, riding the averages.

Fundamentals
91% growth in earnings last quarter, 28% growth in sales.

Technicals
Trending higher since the breakaway gap after earnings. Clean entry was the high of the gap-up day. The 10-day is catching up and holding. The 21-day is ascending. Moving averages should stack in order this week.

Action
No visible buy point right now. Holding. No plans to add until it pulls back to a key moving average or goes sideways and resets. If you do not own it there is nothing to do. If you own it, ride the moving averages.

$NTRA, Natera [HOLDING]

Favorite biotech name, gap-up follow-through, added on the 21-day reversal.

Fundamentals
36% growth in earnings last quarter year-over-year, 38% growth in sales.

Technicals
Large base before earnings, then a clean breakaway gap. Holding the moving averages and respecting the 10-day. Pulled back into the 21-day over the last two weeks. Friday kissed the 21-day and printed a strong upside reversal. That is where the add happened.

Action
Nowhere to add here. Wait for a pullback to key MA’s.

$SNOW, Snowflake [HOLDING]

Clear software leader, neat pullback to the 21-day with an upside reversal.

Fundamentals
63% growth in earnings last quarter, 33% growth in sales.

Technicals
Broke out of a textbook cup-with-handle in late July and has followed through cleanly. Surfed the 10-day for most of the move. Neat pullback over the last two weeks into the 21-day. Friday produced a strong upside reversal right off that average. Nothing erratic about how it landed.

Action
Actionable here as an add or a half position. This is not a full multi-week base, just a short pullback, so size stays light. Trailing stops on the 10-day and 21-day. Like the way this one is acting.

$SHOP, Shopify [WATCHING]

Gap-up that failed to follow through, now rebuilding.

Fundamentals
15% growth in earnings last quarter, 34% growth in sales.

Technicals
Breakaway gap that did not follow through as cleanly as the others. Stopped out on the pullback. Finding support around the 21-day and trading sideways. Looks like it is trying to build something constructive.

Action
Alert set at 155. Power through that level is actionable but not high priority. Would prefer a few more weeks of sideways first, then a move through 155-160 with volume. Watching.

$PANW, Palo Alto Networks [WATCHING]

Upside reversal off the 50-day, earnings in nine days.

Fundamentals
6% growth in earnings last quarter, 31% growth in sales.

Technicals
Closed the prior trade at the end of July. Stock rebounded to new highs then pulled back. Friday’s upside reversal off the 50-day is the constructive piece.

Action
Actionable on the reversal, but keep size small. Earnings are in nine days. Prefer at least a 10% cushion before sitting through earnings. If it cannot give that cushion, the position would be closed before the report. Cyber is looking better overall.

$ABNB, Airbnb [WATCHING]

Tight flag after a strong post-earnings run.

Fundamentals
33% growth in earnings, 17% growth in sales.

Technicals
Earnings on August 7 produced a strong gap and follow-through. Has since consolidated very tight and sideways. This is the type of high-tight flag setup preferred for breakouts.

Action
Actionable on strength through 189-190 if the market gives it room. These tight flags after violent moves are the breakouts that get traded. Dependent on the general market cooperating.

$NVDA, Nvidia [WATCHING]

Building a handle, earnings in three days.

Fundamentals
130% growth in earnings last quarter, 85% growth in sales.

Technicals
Broke out of the lower half of the base, then did what it was entitled to do and built a handle. Starting to look like a classic handle structure.

Action
Not actionable ahead of earnings in three days. Ideal trade is the gap-up if the number is strong enough to surprise. Would trade the 2x ETF (NVD) on a clean gap rather than the stock itself. A big positive report would help the AI trade and the broader market at the same time. Entry zone around 225 on a classic breakout if the handle completes cleanly after the report.

$HPE, Hewlett Packard Enterprise [WATCHING]

Pulled back to the 21-day after a strong run, cup-and-handle forming.

Fundamentals
108% growth in earnings last quarter, 41% growth in sales.

Technicals
Bought on August 3, took partial profits on the way up, then cut the remainder just under the 21-day. Stock is back above the 21-day now. Starting to look cup-and-handle-ish.

Action
Potential to get back involved if the AI trade stabilizes. Starter position around 56 if it starts working higher. Key level is 64. Would rather see it prove itself through these levels than force a full position early.

$IBIT, iShares Bitcoin Trust [WATCHING]

Strong three-day thrust after months of basing.

Fundamentals
None. Pure Bitcoin proxy.

Technicals
Based sideways since June, mostly below the moving averages. Did not tighten before the move. Broke a downward trendline and has now put in three strong days, trading above all key moving averages.

Action
On the radar. Ideal entry is after some sideways consolidation that digests the recent gains. Wait for tight trading between buyers and sellers, then a move higher. No pivot yet. Wait and see.

$HOOD, Robinhood Markets [WATCHING]

Cup forming, strong Friday move with Bitcoin.

Fundamentals
48% growth in earnings last quarter, 35% growth in sales.

Technicals
Building a cup. Strong 13% move on Friday aligned with the Bitcoin surge. Now on the radar for the same reason IBIT is.

Action
Wait and see. Looking for sideways or a neat short consolidation after the thrust to give a proper entry. Same risk-management logic as the Bitcoin ETF: need digestion before the next leg.

SpaceX [WATCHING]

Deep cup post-IPO, testing the 150 level.

Fundamentals
No earnings growth reported. 92% growth in sales last quarter.

Technicals
Deep cup forming since the IPO. Ran into resistance at 150 twice and got rejected. Pulled in, found support, and is back above the 21-day.

Action
Alert at 150. Clean break through 150 is the entry, size light depending on the market. Bear case shared by others points to a breakdown below 130 and potentially under 104. Bull case is the 150 break. Waiting for the stock to decide.

Honorable Mentions

$LLY — Sideways action with an upside reversal; actionable here.
$GCT — Building a bull flag with entry on a breakout above 52; very strong technical action.
$TEM — Strong week, put on the radar; wait and see, no action right now.
$FCX — Strong gap-up; if you trade metals, high of the gap-up day is the entry and low of the gap-up day is the stop.
$ERX — Oil looking extremely strong; way to play energy if you like the space, but highly susceptible to headline risk.
$SOFI — Building a very long base below the 200-day; put on the watchlist as a potential EP candidate if a catalyst appears. Earnings are solid.
$PURR — Three strong days last week, aligned with crypto; power on the radar, looking for consolidation.
$MRK — Strong gap-up and biotech story (Moderna partner angle); gap-day high at 150.35 is the entry if you want biotech exposure beyond Natera.
$GH — Strong move off the 50-day that has consolidated well; actionable around 175 starter / 177 full. Sales growth is solid even if earnings are not.

Closing Thought

The indexes are the governor. When they are trading below key moving averages, full blast on margin is a recipe for getting put in a hole that takes a long time to climb out of. Keep stops where they need to be, take the quick losses, and let the winners run when the tape actually cooperates. Smaller size until the Nasdaq gives us the trend back is the disciplined play right now.

See you on the other side of the open.

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Wall Street handed out some real good news yesterday, and it made me stop and think. The AI infrastructure names keep getting hit with selling pressure while, supposedly, we’re sitting on the greatest technology humanity has ever built…

So why aren’t we seeing it show up in ways that actually change lives?

Then Moderna answers that question for me. I think this changes how I look at the whole AI trade going forward.

Cancer runs in my family, on my grandmother’s side. Knowing that sits with you differently. I remember talking to my cousin in Puerto Rico about it once. He just shrugged and said:

“The ride has to end at some point, that’s how it is.”

He was completely at peace with his own mortality. That stuck with me. I’ve spent a long time just accepting that the disease is out there and the odds catch up to somebody eventually. Yesterday’s news says that might not have to be the case. And we may owe part of that to AI.

A Breakthrough:

Moderna and Merck reported a successful Phase 3 trial yesterday for a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, given alongside Keytruda to high-risk melanoma patients after surgery. It’s the first Phase 3 win ever for a vaccine built to a patient’s own tumor, and the first for an mRNA cancer therapy period. That’s a real step toward a cure, not a hope headline. And even with the AI infrastructure trade stuck in the mud, biotech might end up being one of the best use cases for AI there is.

So today I’m walking through charts on eight biotech leaders that could take the baton and lead this market forward. We need leadership from somewhere, biotech or software, because the AI trade is taking the summer off.

$MRNA | Moderna

Let’s start with the big dog.

Moderna builds mRNA-based medicines, the same platform behind its Covid vaccine, now being pushed hard into cancer treatment and other diseases. What led into this move was a lot of base building. Consolidation going back to March, mostly sideways, picking up steam in June, then tightening into a big cup through July. So it was sitting in a base, and when a stock gaps out of a base like that, we call it a breakaway gap.

Traders like Kristjan Kullamägi call these “EP”s when they hit a certain threshold: a neglected, long base plus a catalyst the market didn’t see coming. A step toward curing cancer fits that bill.

If you traded the five minute highs instead, another Kullamägi concept, you would have crushed it. The five minute high was 122. Buy that pivot, ride it to the close at 174.93. If you did that, congratulations. I didn’t, and I’ll admit that.

Right now I’m hoping for sideways action, maybe a week or two of flat base building, before I look at this again. Some of these names won’t give you that chance, they just keep running. No guarantees either way, but this one’s on my watchlist because of what the news means.

$MRK | Merck

Next is Merck, Moderna’s partner on this drug. Merck is one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world, with Keytruda, its blockbuster cancer immunotherapy, at the center of its oncology business alongside a large vaccine and animal health portfolio.

Merck also gapped up on the news, and this one might actually be more playable. What it’s missing versus a textbook EP or breakaway gap is the base. It did build a long base from February through about July, but it’s been uptrending since then, and I like these setups better when a stock is going sideways, sitting close to and right off its 200 day moving average. This one’s already trending up. It could still work.

Here’s what I’m watching. I’ve got an alert set for the gap up day high, 153.50. If it consolidates for a day, two, or three, and then breaks through that level, taking out the gap day high, it could be worth a position, sized smaller than usual. My stop would sit at the low of the gap day, 144.90. Close below that and I’m out.

Size the position around that stop. Do the math on what a move down to 144.90 costs you as a percentage of total equity, ideally not more than 1%. That’s a bigger conversation for another post. Those are the technical levels I’m watching on this one.

$GH | Guardant Health

Next is Guardant Health, a precision oncology company. They run liquid biopsy tests, blood draws that screen for cancer, monitor for recurrence after treatment, and help doctors pick the right targeted therapy, all without a tissue biopsy. Sales growth is good here. Return on equity isn’t, on the fundamentals side, but let’s get into the chart.

It’s base building, and I think this one is setting up an actionable area. Checking the weekly, the base looks fine. It’s a little unusual, there’s a big weekly bar in the middle that pokes outside the high and low of the range more than you’d typically see. But it’s tightening up on the right side of the base now.

The classic pivot is a cross above 176.58, ideally on an expansion of average true range or a heavy volume day. Worth watching for that.

Zooming out, the stock built a huge consolidation from November 2025 through May 2026, then took off, moving from about 98 to 174, and it’s digested those gains well, respecting its moving averages the whole way.

The thing about Guardant is the sales growth is real but the EPS isn’t positive yet. If you’re a stickler for EPS, fair enough, I understand that stance. For me, sales growth is always going to drive the fundamental side of my decision.

$LLY | Eli Lilly

Next is Lilly.

Full disclosure: I own a position here, started yesterday, through the 2x ETF that tracks it, LLYX. Wanted to be upfront about that.

Lilly makes GLP-1 drugs that treat obesity and diabetes, the same drug class behind Zepbound and Mounjaro, alongside a growing oncology and immunology pipeline. Obesity is a serious disease in this country. A lot of people lose their lives to the heart problems and cholesterol issues that come with it. People tend to think of this category as vanity medicine, but it’s a health issue at its core. A drug that treats it is a good thing.

It’s been a tougher stock for me personally. I’ve owned it a few times before. I owned it back in June, it moved up but never got real traction. It built a flat base from June through yesterday and broke out of it in August, clearing the pivot around 1250. I think it’s extended from here.

Lilly does give you opportunities though. The way it’s been trading, you can buy a pullback to a key moving average, which is exactly what I’d be looking for if I didn’t already own it, an upside reversal type of setup. My stop is always the low of the breakout day. Close below that, I’m out. If I didn’t own it already, I’d be watching for a pullback to a key moving average as it continues to trend higher.

$NTRA | Natera

Full disclosure. I have a position in Natera.

Natera runs genetic and cell-free DNA testing, and the product I care about is Signatera, a blood test built to each patient’s own tumor that detects cancer left in the body after treatment, often catching recurrence earlier than standard scans.

Earnings were really good, sales growth was strong. I bought this one, and it’s been basing out nicely. It built a big sideways cup, every moving average turned up, and then it gapped up on earnings.

I bought that gap up. I got stopped out when it crossed below the gap up day low, and then it reverted on me right after. Made me look foolish, and honestly, I love that.

Call it a bull flag with an invisible pole, since there’s no price bar to trace the pole, just the gap itself. Strange way to put it, but on the weekly chart it reads very bull-flag-ish.

If you get a pullback into that flag area, I’d try it, but I’d want to see the stock respect the rising 10 day moving average first, and hold above the low of the flag, 305. Anything below 305 gets me out.

$VRTX | Vertex

Next is Vertex. Vertex built its business on cystic fibrosis drugs, treatments that address the root cause of the disease rather than just the symptoms, and has more recently expanded into gene editing therapy for sickle cell disease and a non-opioid pain drug. This one’s interesting because it’s also been basing since March, similar to Natera. Big cup, gapped up, reversed lower, found support at the 21 day moving average, and has ripped three days straight.

Unlike Natera, this wasn’t a one day move, it’s been climbing fast and aggressively off the 21 day moving average, poking at new highs. I think it’s extended here. I don’t have a position and don’t plan on starting one at this level. But if it keeps trending higher and pulls back to the 21 day moving average, I think it becomes really actionable. One to watch.

$AMGN | Amgen

Next, Amgen, one of the largest biotech companies in the world, with a portfolio that spans oncology, bone health, and inflammatory disease. Same theme as the others: a big base from March through August that it’s now broken out of. It exceeded expectations and has gone straight up since, breaking out at a pivot price of 378.54 and trading right now at 442. Good run.

I think it’s pretty extended from its most recent base, so there’s nothing to do here right now. If it pulls back to a key moving average, you could try it there, but it’s probably smarter to wait and see if it builds its next base first. We’ll see how the group moves from here.

$HALO | Halozyme

Last one is Halo. Halozyme licenses a drug delivery technology called ENHANZE that lets big biologic drugs, which normally need an IV infusion, be injected under the skin instead. They collect royalties from pharma partners who build it into their products. What a move this stock has made. An incredible run out of its base, gapped up strong, then consolidated and digested those gains well. It’s moved higher in a kind of aggressive bull flag, which happens to be my favorite setup.

I missed this one. No position. It’s very extended, but the earnings and sales are super positive, which I love to see. The financials and fundamentals look great, but it’s extended, so that kind of power just puts it on the radar. You don’t have to jump in on a name like this, but you have to watch it, because it’s showing you the signs of a potential next leader.

Where I land on all this

There are a few sectors I won’t trade for moral reasons. Defense names specifically, I stay away from individually. It just doesn’t sit right with me. Can’t fully explain it, it’s just a weird thing for me.

Medicine is different. There’s a real cause behind it. These are trades where you can make money and still sleep fine at night, knowing you’re part of something good.

No guarantees here. Every one of these could break down tomorrow, and I mean that, they could go to zero and I’d have no way of knowing in advance. But right now they look good, and they’re showing real strength. I wanted to lay out what they look like technically and where the actionable levels sit, so if one of these flashes on your screen, you’ll know what you’re looking at.

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If you want continuous coverage on leading stocks, what I’m watching, key levels, entries, and stops across a broader list, that’s what the weekly trading plan is for. Feel free to subscribe. Otherwise, be safe out there.

Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:

• Market Pulse. Moving averages getting into order and what that means for aggressiveness.

• $SNOW [HOLDING]

• $HPE [HOLDING]

• $CIBR [HOLDING]

• $TEAM [HOLDING]

• $NVDA [HOLDING]

• $SHOP [HOLDING]

• $OSCR [NEW]

• $STX [NEW]

• $PWR [WATCHING]

• $TWLO [WATCHING]

• $NTRA [WATCHING]

• $ABNB [WATCHING]

• Closing Thought. Trade the market in front of us.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

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In April I bought SanDisk. My cost average ended up in the mid $700s. I sold my shares right around $1900.

What attracted me to the name was an incredible increase in earnings and sales. A fundamental change in the business, in the memory space, and the money just flowing into this company. That’s what gave me the conviction to make the trade and the conviction to sit with it.

I’m not an accountant. I don’t read income statements beyond what I need to know. All I need to know is, where’s the money? If you follow the money in anything in life, good things are going to happen.

Everyone who trades or invests is constantly looking for new information that may not be available to everyone else. They’re looking for a catalyst. Something that happens that drives the stock upward.

A lot of the time the catalyst is right under our nose. It’s the earnings and the sales.

Stocks follow earnings.

What happened Wednesday

I did my trading plan over the weekend. The names that were leading were software, cybersecurity, biotech. Some of the big caps were acting pretty well.

The AI trade has been completely dormant this summer. Those stocks have been dead in the water. Under massive consolidation, massive pressure. Despite where they are from a technical perspective, I keep them in my universe because of the strong fundamentals. So I’ve been watching them and tracking where they trade, and there has been nothing but downtrends across these names.

Then Nebius reported.

Nebius is a stock I’m familiar with. It was one of my big winners during the last cycle, so naturally I was interested in what they had to say. I wasn’t surprised at all. They absolutely crushed it.

• Revenue of $582 million, growth of 454%

• AI cloud revenue of $575 million

• Four major contracts signed during Q2, each worth more than a billion dollars

• More than $40 billion in customer commitments

The stock was up 20% early and did nothing but get stronger through the day. It closed up 34% at $259.20.

That’s mass accumulation. Accumulation is the fancy word for the big institutions buying, the funds and the big money, and it’s what moves a stock over weeks and months. This was new information hitting the market, and it’s something to pay attention to.

So what the hell is a neocloud?

I had no idea what a neocloud was until I did some research, even though I traded one of these names.

All I knew was that it was an “AWS for AI”. That isn’t far off from the truth.

You have your traditional hyperscalers. When you think about a Salesforce or a DocuSign, a lot of those platforms are built on AWS, which is an infrastructure for cloud applications.

A neocloud is newer infrastructure built around GPU intensive AI workloads. The AI systems we use day to day, and the AI systems used in enterprise, have an incredible consumption on compute. They need dedicated companies to provide the infrastructure for that.

Nebius, CoreWeave, IREN, Hut 8 and TeraWulf are the names in that space. They’re also the top five holdings of NCLD, the ETF that tracks the neoclouds.

Why does anybody care? Because this isn’t one company making money. This is multiple companies in the same space with ridiculous growth, absolutely dominating in the marketplace right now.

That’s why we have to pay attention and look for the clues of when these stocks are under accumulation.

Which brings me to the charts.

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Nebius (NBIS)

Nebius had an incredible run from April 7 all the way through June 22, where it eventually topped at $299.86. Since then it’s been in a continuous downtrend through most of July.

In late July it stopped the downtrend and started to trade sideways, but in a very choppy manner. Very volatile. A range from 230 down as low as 145 at the 200-day moving average.

Before earnings it closed around 12% below its 50-day. That’s well below where we would typically look at stocks. It powered right through that level after this latest report and went straight up in the air.

Would I buy here? No.

There’s a possibility it works from here. I think there’s a better possibility of finding a setup in the coming week or so, or in the coming weeks. However long it takes.

It needs some sideways action. When you get a reprice like Nebius had, there needs to be agreement in the market, and that typically comes in the form of a consolidation and a digestion of the gains. The more this stock can stay sideways and not give up the immense gains from the earnings report, the better chance it has of a sustained move upward.

So we’re patient. The power Nebius showed is a signal to have this on your radar. From here we need a tradable setup.

CoreWeave (CRWV)

CoreWeave had a similar look. A huge gap today, up 20%, after a very long consolidation. You can argue the downtrend for CoreWeave started around May 7, earlier than Nebius.

Even before then, CoreWeave has been lagging. It hasn’t had the performance. You can tell just by the numbers that Nebius is the leader. Nebius has a cleaner return on equity, and cleaner EPS growth YoY.

CoreWeave does have a strong fundamental story. That story is wrapped into sales growth and acceleration, which I love. I always think sales is the key to any company succeeding.

I might be a little biased there as a former enterprise sales rep.

With a stock like this I’m waiting for sideways action again.

I’ve been studying gap ups for a while and I like to buy them when there has been a lot of sideways action first. This has been more of a gap up coming out of a downtrend.

So we wait on this one too. Very similar situation to Nebius. We’ll see if it gives us an entry.

IREN

IREN is a little different. It’s a bit of a laggard in terms of earnings and sales growth, and from a stability perspective.

What I don’t like about IREN is the deceleration in sales growth. I like to see that in reverse.

This one definitely needs more time. It’s below its 200-day. It’s below its 50-day. It isn’t looking as good as the other two on the list.

One to watch nonetheless, because it does seem to be rounding out the bottom of a base. If it can follow through with some strength, that’s a positive signal.

Hut 8 (HUT)

Hut 8 is a stock I’ve tried multiple times. I couldn’t make money on it. I never got it at the right time. It popped onto my screen and captured my attention at the end of the AI run.

It’s off its highs, but the decline and the consolidation aren’t as ugly as the others.

Right now it’s finding a lot of resistance at declining moving averages, which isn’t a good signal.

I drew a downward trend line I want to see Hut break before it gets serious and I start looking at setups.

I don’t know what it is about Hut. I love their earnings numbers. They just have good solid sales growth.

TeraWulf (WULF)

TeraWulf is a disaster. It’s gone straight down since June 22. It had a great run in April through June, and now it doesn’t look good.

This one is four for four below every key moving average. It’s under a tremendous amount of pressure, finding resistance at every single moving average, all of them declining on it. It’s an ugly, ugly chart.

They reported earnings on the fifth and there wasn’t much of a reaction. It was kind of a dud.

This one has to put in a lot of work to even be included in a watch list. I would spend my time on the top two.

How I rank them

Nebius. CoreWeave. Hut 8. IREN. TeraWulf.

You have a clear leader in the top two. I would also keep my eye on Hut.

One of the key reasons I sort them that way is relative strength. Relative strength is a rating that tracks how a stock has performed against every other stock in the market, around 6,000 names, not just the S&P 500. It’s one thing you always have to look at.

Why not just buy it

The reason you don’t pile into a stock, the way we trade, is that you want continued signals of accumulation.

A big part of accumulation is trading within a range. You’re looking for a sustained uptrend, so you want to buy out of a pattern that’s indicative of long term accumulation.

When funds and big institutions buy stocks, they can’t achieve their whole position in one day. Even though it felt like that with Nebius on Wednesday, it takes weeks and months for these institutions to build their positions.

So we look for the signals. I call them the elephant footprints. That was a huge footprint on Wednesday.

Now we want to see where the support levels are. If it drifts, if it has a consolidation and there’s an agreement between the buyers and sellers on a range of what the stock is worth, and it trades in that range for a few weeks or longer and then breaks again, we know we’re in a continuous cycle of accumulation.

Those are the entry points. Those are the low risk entry points.

Did it change how I see the market

It did.

You want to start to see leaders. Leadership in stocks is a funny thing, because just like in anything, the followers will follow the strongest individuals. There’s no difference with stocks.

You want to see signals that these companies are still present in the AI space, and Nebius made it very clear.

A 34% move isn’t retail investors on Robinhood moving that stock. That’s some big boys accumulating a massive amount of stock.

Nebius is a great business. A great business doesn’t always mean a great stock.

Nebius is essentially a resurrection, and it’s a really good sign for the AI trade for Nebius to be strong. So we want to watch that. It has absolutely earned our respect and it deserves our attention.

Tying it back to what we do, nothing is a better vote for a stock going up than that business making a ton of money.

We’ll continue to watch these names.

Happy trading. We’ll talk to you all soon.

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Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:

• Market Pulse. Why the Qs finally gave the green light, and how hard we pressed it.

• $SNOW [HOLDING]: our biggest winner, and far too extended to touch.

• $AMZN [HOLDING]: two gaps up, one of them filled, one line that matters.

• $CIBR [HOLDING]: the ETF I bought after getting shaken out of Palo Alto.

• $HPE [NEW]: bought the upside reversal, waiting on a handle to add.

• $NVDA [NEW]: gapped through its pivot in the middle of the base.

• $TWLO [NEW]: strong earnings gap, very wide day, scaled exit.

• $TEAM [NEW]: a 35% gap after five months of nothing.

• $NTRA [NEW]: 21% gap out of a high handle above the 200-day.

• $DELL [WATCHING]: stopped me out, then reversed hard the next day.

• $SHOP [WATCHING]: retesting the gap day highs after a fundamental turn.

• Closing Thought. Trading the market in front of you.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

Let’s get into it.

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TSLA, 2022.

I was heavy. Not 200% long, but well over 100%, and something close to 80 or 90 percent of my whole account sat in that one name. I had one other stock next to it.

The drawdown did not blow up my account. It blew up my confidence.

That loss was demoralizing in a way the number alone does not explain. It was a long road back. And the honest read on what happened is simple. That was me trying to be Bill O’Neil, and it not working.

I still use margin. But I have to earn it from myself first, and that is what this post is about.

The fund that got liquidated last week

By now you have probably heard of Situational Awareness.

It is the AI hedge fund started by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher who left to build a fund around the most popular theme in the world. It had a great start. Up 439% from the beginning of 2026 through June. Assets peaked around $45 billion in early July.

Then last week it made worldwide news.

Aschenbrenner got margin called on his public positions. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan were his prime brokers, and the fund had to sell the entire public book to Citadel at roughly a 10% discount. About $16 billion of stock, handed over. Assets fell to around $10 billion. He got to keep the private holdings.

The number that matters for our purposes: the fund had used as much as 400% leverage.

Nebius, SanDisk, Micron and CoreWeave were among its top disclosed positions. Each one shed more than 35% in a single month.

This is not the first time

Like most things on Wall Street, this has happened before.

There was a fund in the 90s called Long-Term Capital Management. It employed some of the best traders, economists and Nobel Prize winners you can think of. Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, who won the 1997 Nobel for the Black-Scholes model, sat on the board.

The smartest minds you can possibly think of, running sophisticated strategies with incredible returns.

Then August 1998 came and their positions turned against them. Their leverage was north of 25 to 1. Roughly $5 billion in equity controlling $125 billion in assets. They could not get out.

The fund lost $4.6 billion in under four months. The Federal Reserve had to intervene. Fourteen banks put up $3.6 billion in September of 1998 to wind the thing down in an orderly way. The Fed did not lend a dollar of its own money. It just got everyone in a room.

There is a great book on this called When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein. Highly recommended.

Two funds. Completely different strategies. Same recipe for disaster.

Really smart people. Highly leveraged positions.

I think being smart sometimes opens the door for stubbornness. When you have done that much analysis, admitting you are wrong gets very hard. The market does not care how much work you did. It is not forgiving for that type of individual.

A disclaimer, and I mean it:

This is not financial advice. This is a very sensitive topic. Talk to your financial advisor before you even apply for a margin account.

How I earn margin

Margin does not give you an edge. It magnifies the one you have, or the one you do not have. It adds octane. Rocket fuel, really, to whatever is already happening in your account.

So the question is never “can I borrow.” It is “have I earned it.”

First, the market has to be in a confirmed uptrend.

I am not going to spend a lot of time defining an uptrend here. Use whatever system tells you when to be aggressive and lean on it. For me it comes down to the key moving averages being in order. The 10-day above the 21-day, the 21 above the 50, the 50 above the 200. Rising and stacked.

If the moving averages are not in order and ascending, I do not consider margin at all.

Second, we have to be in a power trend.

Power trend is a term made popular by Mike Webster. The piece I lean on most: the daily lows of the Nasdaq, stay above the 21-day moving average for at least ten days.

Third, and this one matters more, my own trades have to be working.

The indexes can be great and you can still be out of sync with the market.

Your account gives you the best feedback you are going to get. Your most recent trades are the real read on how well you are trading and how in sync you are with what is in front of you.

Fourth, existing positions need a profit cushion.

Profit cushion means open gains you can afford to give back. I call it seeing a lot of green. It is what it sounds like. You open your brokerage account and everything is up.

A strong confirmed power trend, and your own trades doing really well inside it. That is when I find it advantageous to push the gas.

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Do not use margin to get concentrated in one name

I remember William O’Neil being famous for going 200% long in a single name. Trying to replicate that has cost me a ton of money. See the top of this post.

My full position is 20% of my account. If it runs, I trim back to 20%. If it keeps working I will let it grow into 25 or 30, and 25 to 30 is my ceiling. That is very concentrated for most people. I have heard 40 and I think 40 is too nuts.

So when I go on margin, it is not because one name got bigger. It is because other A+ setups showed up.

Here is what that actually looks like. Say there are two names with really strong upside reversals. Two of those, in a good market, while I am up. I will take both. That is an extra 40% of exposure across two names, on borrowed money.

Sometimes I will not even add a single stock. If the market looks strong but I am comfortable with what I already own in the leaders, I will just add index exposure. SPY or QQQ.

The point is you are adding different instruments. You are not going 150% into one name.

Sell down to the sleeping point

There is a famous saying, sell down to the sleeping point. I always thought that was anecdotal and a little silly. There is no system in it.

It is also completely true.

Marvell and Bloom Energy, in the middle of their runs. The positions had grown a little beyond my control. I could barely sleep. I had put so much into those trades and I knew I needed to reduce.

It is embarrassing to write that while I am preaching on being responsible. I still make these mistakes sometimes. It gets away from me and I try to rectify it.

If you are waking up at three in the morning to check the futures, you are too heavy. I have been there. Trust me, I have been there.

And if you are reading a piece about margin while trading growth stocks, you will be there at some point.

The risk of being too concentrated is not only blowing up your account. It is getting shaken out of a normal, natural pullback. I trade better when I can sit in a leader for a longer period of time, and I can only do that when the position is small enough to let me sit.

Find the position size that lets you sit.

The part margin cannot protect you from

I was on margin almost the entire month of April and most of May.

Then the AI trade got hit in June. I lost 11% of my total account in a single day. I was sick, in California, and I woke up to SanDisk down big.

There is always gap down risk. You cannot control that. Your stop does not execute on a gap.

You read what the market is doing and you go along with it. Sometimes the current is moving fast and in the right direction, and refusing to take any advantage of that is its own mistake if you are trying to grow a smaller account.

It is a double edged sword either way.

The checklist

Here is the one I run. I strongly recommend you build your own version, but this is mine:

The absolute no-gos

I usually do not talk in absolutes. These are absolutes.

Never use margin to average down.

Never use margin to recover.

Never use margin on a revenge trade.

Never go into an earnings report at a reckless size because margin let you.

Be careful out there

For a smaller account, margin can be a great asset. It can also be your worst enemy. Same tool, and the difference is you.

Use it in a strong market with the wind at your back, while you are already winning. Stay away from it on the losing streak.

Treat the market like a casino and it will treat you like a gambler. Treat it like a business and it will pay you like a business.

Operate as if you have to report your trades to a boss and every one of them has to be defendable. Run your own checklist before you do anything reckless.

Look out for the next trading plan this weekend. Happy trading.

Three lines for Notes

1. Margin does not give you an edge. It magnifies the one you have, or the one you don’t.

2. If you are waking up at 3am to check the futures, you are too heavy.

Treat the market like a casino and it will treat you like a gambler. Treat it like a business and it will pay you like a business.

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Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:

• Market Pulse. Where the NASDAQ rally attempt stands and what confirms it.

• $SNOW [HOLDING]: shaken out, bought back, one of the best charts in the market.

• $AMZN [NEW]: a 15% earnings gap out of months of nothing.

• $DDOG [WATCHING]: broke out, squatted back, and reports this week.

• $DELL [WATCHING]: the tidiest chart in the AI trade, sitting on its 50-day.

• $HPE [WATCHING]: very tight sideways action above the 50-day.

• $PANW [WATCHING]: reversed off the 50-day, no entry yet.

• $OSCR [WATCHING]: a clean consolidation with an early pivot and a real one.

• $ERX [WATCHING]: energy is setting up and this is how we get the octane.

• $DASH [WATCHING]: over 100 days dormant, and earnings hit Wednesday.

• $TEAM [WATCHING]: same setup, still stuck under its 200-day.

• Closing Thought. Getting shaken out is not a verdict.

How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.

Market Pulse

The S&P looks a lot better, but the NASDAQ is the index we watch closest this week.

The NASDAQ put in a new low on July 29th, had a very big relief rally the following day, and made further price progress on the 31st right into its 21-day moving average. That puts us in day two of a rally attempt.

For anyone who does not know this system, here is the short version: After a market low, we count the days off that low and wait for a strong up day that confirms the uptrend is back. That is the follow-through day, made popular by William O’Neil. It has to come on day four at the earliest, and ideally between day four and day seven. That means we could get a follow-through on the NASDAQ as early as Tuesday.

We can also just use the 21-day moving average as our guide. Getting above it, and getting the day’s low above it, is another very constructive way to begin dipping a toe in the water and start looking for stocks in our ideal setups.

Here is the other read out of this week’s screening. The stocks that led the last cycle are still damaged. The semis and the memory names, the SanDisks and the MUs of the world, are at the bottom of their bases (in the best case scenario). They need time. What is actually set up right now is software, cloud computing, energy, and hardware. That lines up with O’Neil’s work, where the leaders of the last cycle typically do not lead the next one.

Earnings are thick this week. SanDisk reports, a ton of the AI names report. Do your due diligence before you enter anything, because you can get caught in an earnings gap the wrong way and it is not a great feeling.

Every entry below assumes the market follows through first.

, Snowflake [HOLDING]

One of the best charts in the market, bar none.

My first buy here was June 26th and I have held it since. It shook me out on July 28th when it undercut the 21-day, and then to my surprise it reversed to the upside and followed through into a breakout the very next day, where I bought it back on July 29th.

Friday brought a downside reversal. Given that it holds the low of its breakout day, which is $276.90, this stays very healthy. That level is the line.

Software has turned out to be a very strong sector, and this chart is the leader in it in terms of price action so far. If it loses $276.90, the story changes and the position comes off.

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