Fed day is finally over. Rates went up as everyone expected and now we look at what the market left us to work with.
This summer has been brutal if you are actively trading growth stocks. So many false starts.
The indexes need to be our traffic light. We wait for them to tell us the coast is clear, the wind is at our back, and it is time to add exposure again.
Today the S&P closed decisively under the 50-day. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are under it too. That is a red light in the way we trade.
We can not tune out on a red light. Nine out of ten stocks follow the market down. We look to keep track of the ones that do not. That is relative strength.
The picture that locked it for me is a basketball underwater. The market is the hand holding it down. When that pressure comes off, the ball fires to the surface. Those are the moves we want.
I wanted to cover five charts from five different themes. Exact levels and the full plan will be live in my weekly trading plan that goes out Sunday before the close.
This is not a promise the market turns. If we are not back above the 21-day, or at minimum the 50-day, all bets are off.
Let’s get into the charts.
How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Do your own research. Managing risk comes first. Never blindly buy a name from a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.
Space - $SPCX, SpaceX
Full disclosure: I own it.
IPO, two days up, then straight down. Recovered off the August lows, made a decent move, and has been building a tight sideways consolidation since.
$150 is the clear psychological level that is still relevant. $155 would be a real breakout.
It is consolidating tight, above the 10-day, the 21-day, and the 50-day. Extreme relative strength. I do not like it under the 21-day. I want that average to hold as it works higher but that still depends on the market.
Rockets, Starlink, The Elon complex. People hate Elon, so they skip Grok. Grokbot going mainstream changes that. If you respect Anthropic and OpenAI, this stack is in that fight and a lot of people are late because they do not want to admit it.
Quick sidebar: Grokbot has been a game changer. I built an AI Agent to shop for my sons first car, and it found me a great deal on a Toyota Corolla for him. Message me if you have any interesting agentic use cases.
Sales were +92% last quarter. Deeper work will be in Sunday’s plan. I like it here as long as the 21-day holds.
Software - $ZETA, Zeta Global
Full disclosure. I own it.
Zeta puts AI into marketing workflows. Run a campaign, get a 360 read on new markets, and feed the team data they can actually use. I built my career in software and I know an exciting product when I see it.
Marketing is my favorite ICP. Those teams get budget to drive pipeline and they are relatively easy to close. Zeta is selling into that, and they are making a real splash in AI.
Last quarter: sales +44% ($443M vs $308M). First positive GAAP quarter, $0.03. Twentieth straight beat-and-raise.
The stock does not give anything back. Market chops, and this one stays in an uptrend above the 21-day. Best relative strength I am seeing in the group. One to watch.
Biotech - $MRNA, Moderna
Greatest story of the year. Phase 3 in melanoma, with Merck. Personalized mRNA vaccine on top of Keytruda. Recurrence-free survival hit. Distant metastasis-free survival hit. They are on their way to something that looks a lot like curing cancer. That is the best catalyst I could possibly think of.
The chart is a dream after a 177% move. Huge thrust on the news, then sideways. High-tight flag. Strong and one to watch.
Deeper levels are in the Sunday plan.
Chips - $AMD, Advanced Micro Devices
Acting great inside the AI group. Above the 50-day and starting to get back over the rest of the moving averages. Sideways from there. Pattern I want to keep on the sheet.
Non-GAAP EPS: +246% ($1.66 vs $0.48). Sales: +50% ($11.54B vs $7.69B). Data center: +107% ($6.7B).
Dell is the other AI name looking fantastic right now. Strong uptrend. Not the chart for this post but wanted to mention it just so it is on your radar.
Health plus software - $HTFL, HeartFlow
We had biotech with Moderna and software with Zeta. This is the merge of both groups. AI on heart disease. CT scan in, 3D model of the arteries out, so doctors can see plaque without going in. Feel-good story that is also a real product.
Sales last quarter: +48%. Accelerating.
The pattern is textbook. William O’Neil studied the high-tight flag and put it in his book, “How to Make Money in Stocks”.
Tight sideways. Strong price action. One to watch.
The first trade is the market!
Everything above depends on the tape.
If there is a trade this week or next, the first one I want is the market itself. Qs back above the 50-day is the minimum before I start initiating again. I will not go to full size until we are over the 21-day. That is the first marker. Stocks come after.
Sunday we go deeper. Exact levels, pivot points, and the full list.
This is how I am seeing it. Take what is useful.