Weekly Trading Plan | May 31st
A Wider Look: Leadership, Setups, and Why Nobody's Euphoric Yet
Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan.
This week we are doing things a little differently. This one is free for everyone, and it is a broader look at the market than usual. More themes, more leadership, more names worth watching across the board.
Here is what we are covering.
Market Pulse. A read on whether the QQQ keeps riding its trend or needs to rest, and what a pullback would mean for how aggressive we should be right now.
The Focus List. Seven names we are actively trading or watching closest. Charts, commentary, and the levels that matter. Holdings are tagged.
The Broad Watchlist. A wide sweep of the strongest setups across software, AI, semis, financials, and a few institutional anchors. Rapid fire, with the level to watch on each.
Quick reminder before we get into it:
Nothing in here is financial advice. Talk to an adviser. This is one trader’s read on the tape and the names worth watching. Do your own research, manage your own risk, and never trade money you cannot afford to lose. The number one rule is to stay in the game and live to invest another day.
Let’s get into it.
Market Pulse
We are in a confirmed uptrend and the job this week is to prepare for every scenario rather than predict one.
The market can absolutely continue higher. The rotation into software has been real, and that alone could power the next leg. But we are extended from the moving averages, and a pullback here would be healthy, not a problem. The Qs have been riding the 10-day cleanly, so a test back toward 720 would be natural and would do more good than harm. It resets the stage, retests prior highs, and gives us a real launchpad instead of a tired drift higher.
That is the read we are leaning toward. A pullback that holds and then goes. We think it, but we do not need to be right about it, because the plan does not depend on it. We manage each position stock by stock, we keep our stops, and we always have a way out in case of catastrophe.
What this means for sizing: stay on offense while names are working and lows hold above the 21-day, but be ready to ease off the gas rather than running full margin the whole time. Sometimes the right move is to chill. The market moves to disappoint the most people, and right now the crowd is still skeptical and top-calling, which usually means up.
Sentiment Check
Here is the part that should keep us interested. After two months of the market grinding higher, sentiment is only just now entering the Greed zone at 60. A week ago it was 58, a month ago it was 66. We are not in euphoria. We are in the polite end of greed.
That gap matters. If we get the sharp pullback we are watching for and sentiment slides back toward neutral, the next move up would have a far bigger launching pad underneath it. That is jumping the gun for now, so we just keep watching.
What we are actually seeing tells the same story. X is full of bear cases right now. AI is fake, the theme is a Ponzi, the money is not real, pick your flavor of doom. There is a lot of negativity out there, and the index is reflecting exactly that. Sentiment has not caught up to price action, and there is no overwhelming euphoria to end this run. The market moves to disappoint the most people, and right now that still means up.
The Focus List
$SNDK, SanDisk [HOLDING]
Long since April and up over 100% on the position. This is our Stars Aligned trade, and the precedent is Qualcomm in 1999. It has broken out of the high tight flag and cleared 1600, and the structure is holding.
This is a place to scale out, not in. Here is the locked plan. A close below 1580 takes us from oversized down to full position, and we put the oversize back on at a reclaim of 1600 if it sets up again. A close below 1520 takes us from full down to our 15% core. The core does not get touched unless the 21-day goes, which drops us to a starter, and a break of the 10-week (50-day) closes the trade entirely.
The boogeyman here is volume. It is drifting higher on below-average volume, which can cut either way. What we want to see is what Qualcomm did the week after its high tight flag broke: a stalling week that ran up and then reversed to close flat. If we get that, we get excited, because that is the template doing its job. Manage it day by day on a closing basis.
$CRDO, Credo Technology [HOLDING]
We are up about 20% here, bought off the 10-week. There is not much to do because they report earnings Monday after the close, which locks out a clean new entry. Buying a stock the day it reports is a gamble, so proceed with caution.
We are holding through only because the cushion is there. If it gaps up on the print, that is a great opportunity to buy an earnings gap, one of our favorite ways into a stock. If it gaps down, the 21-day is our line in the sand. For a fresh holder who bought at the 10-week, a break of the 10-week is the exit. For us, given where we bought, the 21-day is where we live. Below that is too much drawdown to carry.
$NBIS, Nebius [HOLDING]
The price action last week was the story. Over the last three weeks it has been tightening, contracting, less and less volatility. That is exactly what we want to see. It broke out of its base at 140, ran to a high of 233.73, and has been coiling since.
We are playing this as an ascending base on the daily, and we have already built a position off upside reversal entries. It is actionable at 233.72 because that clears the ascending base. The discipline we learned the hard way here: we buy light on the breakout and heavy on the reversals. The breakout add is the smallest, last bite, never the entry and never early. We jumped the pivot by a buck twice and got punished for it. Next add only on a clean break and hold above 233.72.
$STRL, Sterling Infrastructure [HOLDING]
This started building a high tight flag and came down a little more than we wanted in the flag, so it is not the neatest formation. But it found support at the 21-day and has reversed higher, and we have been building off those upside reversals off the low.
We are watching for the flag breakout around 890, which is where it becomes actionable to add. Strong earnings, strong sales, excellent technical action, and the infrastructure-plus-AI build-out is underappreciated right now. This is the best-acting name we own and it is bucking a weak tape.
$TWLO, Twilio [HOLDING]
This is how we are playing software, and we have been in the space for almost 15 years. Twilio is loved by developers, the fundamental story is strong, and we know this business inside out. It gapped up on earnings like a leader and was underpriced at the end of April, then spent the last month digesting that gap and building a high tight flag on the 21-day.
We have been building off the bottom of the flag on upside reversals. It is actionable to add around 203.71, the pivot of the flag. Other software names get more attention, but this is the one we have conviction in. Stop sits at 180, the low of the upside reversal day.
$ONDS, Ondas Holdings [HOLDING]
A drone company that gapped up on news of federal drone funding. It had the earnings gap, then an inside day that consolidated nicely within the gap bar, then a constructive upside reversal that closed right back near the gap-day close. We bought it at 12.42 on a break of resistance inside the larger base.
No plans to add here. We are using a general percentage stop rather than the technical level, because the technical break near 11 is more drawdown than we want. It is actionable at the gap-day high, so an entry at 1380 would be constructive, playing continuation of the earnings momentum. That is an aggressive entry and it is not for everyone. It moves violently, so we keep it small.
$CRCL, Circle [HOLDING]
This one has been tricky for a lot of people, and the fundamental story is excellent. Last week was constructive. It cut below the 50-day and 200-day, then put in an upside reversal, our favorite entry. We entered on the second day after the reversal, using time as confirmation.
If you missed that, the more constructive spot is around 120, which clears a lot of resistance inside the consolidation, with a full position around 130. It is also four weeks tight on the weekly with a weekly upside reversal. The last time it printed a weekly upside reversal, it ran 176% to its recent high. We will see if that repeats or if it is different this time.
The Broad Watchlist
A wider sweep of the strongest setups on the board. Rapid fire, with the level that matters on each. These are watching unless noted.
$DELL, Dell [WATCHING] Broke out on the 263 catalyst, now a 32.7% gap up. Amazing strength, but it has run. Aggressive players work the intraday highs for a momentum add. Proceed with caution this far extended.
$IBM, IBM [WATCHING] Strong up day, above the 200-day, clearing prior consolidation. A little extended from its last breakout. The 320 level is the prior resistance to clear. We want it to digest and give us a high tight flag or a 200-day retest on an upside reversal. High on the list, not yet actionable.
$FROG, JFrog [WATCHING] Covered in last weeks plan. High tight flag broke out, big day Friday up 9%. Strong mover. Watch for pullbacks.
$CRWD, CrowdStrike [WATCHING] Same setup. Broke out, strong Friday, relative strength 94. Nothing to do here yet. Wait for a pullback and a digestion of the gains.
$SNOW, Snowflake [WATCHING] Strong gap up. The entry was the gap-day high at 244.92, now 255.55, with resistance at 280. Very extended. We want it sideways to give us something to trade. Nothing actionable up here.
$INOD, Innodata [WATCHING] Caught the earnings gap and sold into strength. It has built a clean base since, in the spirit of a high tight flag, and the flagpole ran 100%. First buy point inside the base is 100, the actual breakout is 114.77. Around 115 is where it is actionable.
$DAVE, Dave [WATCHING] A mention, not a buy. Relative strength up to 89. These are not names we trade, but we want financials acting well in a bull market, and they are starting to catch up. Healthy sign.
$GEN, Gen Digital [WATCHING] A character change. Broke out at 20, ran into the 200-day, consolidated right underneath it, then had a super strong breakout from that flag on Friday. Beautiful chart. Fundamentals are not the blowout we would like, but the price action is excellent.
$AVGO, Broadcom [WATCHING] Long consolidation since mid-April, broke out Friday on strong volume. Everything you want to see. Actionable within 5% of 442.36. We want follow-through from this fresh breakout.
$FLEX, Flex [WATCHING] A clean high tight flag. Consolidated after a high of 147.34 and broke out Friday. Relative strength 98. Actionable within 5% of the pivot. We would rather it digest up here and give us an upside reversal entry.
$DOCN, DigitalOcean [WATCHING] Another software name, still consolidating sideways. Was on the watchlist alongside Twilio. Actionable around 170.
$MRVL, Marvell [WATCHING] Chopping but not violating the 21-day. We are watching for an ascending base, but it has not done anything yet. It needs a real pullback and some base building before it is actionable. A liquid leader and an institutional darling, so it stays on the list. Better merchandise to trade right now.
$WDC, Western Digital [WATCHING] The other side of the memory trade. Very similar to SanDisk, just not quite as strong on the last session, right at a new high of 525.15. We want it to hold above 500 in the same way we need SanDisk to hold 1600.
$KRYS, Krystal Biotech [WATCHING] Strong, consolidating well off a long base. Watching for the breakout pivot.
$GLW, Corning [WATCHING] Got shaken out before earnings and took profits. It is forming what looks like an ascending base and finding support at the 10-week. Not as high-octane as the other AI names, but interesting around 200 if it can clear that consolidation and get above it.
$AMZN, Amazon [WATCHING] Long base in the mid-200s since December 2024. Recent dip below the 200-day reset the base, then a run to 278.56 and sideways since. Actionable above 250. An institutional anchor to balance out the high-octane names if you need stability.
$TSLA, Tesla [WATCHING] Consolidating since December 2024, lots of digestion sideways. The perfect entry was the 5/19 upside reversal. The second-best spot is a break above 455.
$BE, Bloom Energy [WATCHING] A comment, not a buy. This one is a mess and has been our toughest teacher. Almost impossible to buy on strength, messy consolidation, violent swings. We want the violence to ease and a cleaner base. The fundamentals are amazing, and if you buy weakness with disciplined stops it could work. It does not fit our personality right now.
$COCO, Vita Coco [WATCHING] Was the talk of the town, then forgotten. Strong run to 80, then two weeks tight going into a third. We want a break above 80 on violent volume and a big move up. That would be interesting.
$RKLB, Rocket Lab [WATCHING] Amazing move off a cup with handle, textbook breakout at 93.10. It has gone, drifting up and finding support at the 10-day. Watching for the next base, a strong pullback, or a 21-day pullback. One we have wanted and struggled to get into.
$MXL, MaxLinear [WATCHING] Covered last week. Shook us out a few times on violent moves. It found support at the 21-day and has flushed a lot of investors. We wait for the new high. The most recent shakeout was 106.28, so the entry is 106.30 to clear that resistance. Do not jump the gun.
$INTC, Intel [WATCHING] One of the first to go parabolic after it was depressed. It has digested the gains surprisingly well off a high of 132.75. It broke a downtrend on a pocket pivot then reversed off it. We want it to bounce off the 21-day and give an upside reversal. Otherwise the entry is 133.
Closing Thought
The strongest tell on the board this week is where the setups are. They are stacked in software, and the AI trade is still fully intact. Some attention has shifted off the memory trade, and that quiet could actually be the setup for the next leg there.
A pullback is what we are expecting, and we are treating it as a gift rather than a threat. We scale out of what is not working and into what is. We give the leaders a little more room to breathe in a tape like this, and we keep our stops no matter what.
Do not let anyone else’s numbers pull you off your game. There is a lot of noise out there, a lot of people lying about returns. Play your plan, manage your risk, and the gains will come to those who are still standing.
See you on the other side of the open.