TLDR: The indexes are telling different stories and we stay smaller until the Nasdaq gets back above the 21-day and starts trending. Leadership is real in software, biotech, energy, and crypto, but new positions stay half to quarter size until traction shows.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trading Plan. Here’s what we’re covering:
Market Pulse. Three indexes telling three different stories and what that means for sizing.
Software leaders.
Biotech leaders.
AI names and related.
Crypto, energy, and other.
Honorable Mentions. A longer list of names worth watching.
Closing Thought.
How we trade these names. This is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own research. Managing risk should always be your priority, and that means never blindly buying into names you see on a newsletter. Build your system and follow your rules.
Market Pulse
The three indexes are telling three different stories. A few weeks ago the Nasdaq poked above 26,000 after a clean consolidation and had a strong day on August 13 that looked like it would test the highs of the range. The rally lost steam. It pulled all the way back below the 21-day and undercut the follow-through day low. That was disappointing. We are now sitting right on top of the 50-day.
QQQ tells a slightly more disheartening version of the same story. Recent trading has been below the 50-day.
SPX looks better. It poked out to new all-time highs, digested them, and has found support at the 21-day.
What this means is mixed signals. The indexes are the traffic light for how much exposure to run. The actual story is always in the stocks. There is still a lot of damage under the surface in growth, especially the AI trade after the Nebius report and the chop that followed. Rotation into new leadership is possible and we have seen it before. Leadership right now is showing in software, biotech, energy, and crypto.
Until the Nasdaq can get back above the 21-day and start trending, we are trading smaller. New positions stay half to quarter size. If they gain traction we can add.
$TEAM, Atlassian [HOLDING]
Clean gap-up follow-through, riding the averages.
Fundamentals
91% growth in earnings last quarter, 28% growth in sales.
Technicals
Trending higher since the breakaway gap after earnings. Clean entry was the high of the gap-up day. The 10-day is catching up and holding. The 21-day is ascending. Moving averages should stack in order this week.
Action
No visible buy point right now. Holding. No plans to add until it pulls back to a key moving average or goes sideways and resets. If you do not own it there is nothing to do. If you own it, ride the moving averages.
$NTRA, Natera [HOLDING]
Favorite biotech name, gap-up follow-through, added on the 21-day reversal.
Fundamentals
36% growth in earnings last quarter year-over-year, 38% growth in sales.
Technicals
Large base before earnings, then a clean breakaway gap. Holding the moving averages and respecting the 10-day. Pulled back into the 21-day over the last two weeks. Friday kissed the 21-day and printed a strong upside reversal. That is where the add happened.
Action
Nowhere to add here. Wait for a pullback to key MA’s.
$SNOW, Snowflake [HOLDING]
Clear software leader, neat pullback to the 21-day with an upside reversal.
Fundamentals
63% growth in earnings last quarter, 33% growth in sales.
Technicals
Broke out of a textbook cup-with-handle in late July and has followed through cleanly. Surfed the 10-day for most of the move. Neat pullback over the last two weeks into the 21-day. Friday produced a strong upside reversal right off that average. Nothing erratic about how it landed.
Action
Actionable here as an add or a half position. This is not a full multi-week base, just a short pullback, so size stays light. Trailing stops on the 10-day and 21-day. Like the way this one is acting.
$SHOP, Shopify [WATCHING]
Gap-up that failed to follow through, now rebuilding.
Fundamentals
15% growth in earnings last quarter, 34% growth in sales.
Technicals
Breakaway gap that did not follow through as cleanly as the others. Stopped out on the pullback. Finding support around the 21-day and trading sideways. Looks like it is trying to build something constructive.
Action
Alert set at 155. Power through that level is actionable but not high priority. Would prefer a few more weeks of sideways first, then a move through 155-160 with volume. Watching.
$PANW, Palo Alto Networks [WATCHING]
Upside reversal off the 50-day, earnings in nine days.
Fundamentals
6% growth in earnings last quarter, 31% growth in sales.
Technicals
Closed the prior trade at the end of July. Stock rebounded to new highs then pulled back. Friday’s upside reversal off the 50-day is the constructive piece.
Action
Actionable on the reversal, but keep size small. Earnings are in nine days. Prefer at least a 10% cushion before sitting through earnings. If it cannot give that cushion, the position would be closed before the report. Cyber is looking better overall.
$ABNB, Airbnb [WATCHING]
Tight flag after a strong post-earnings run.
Fundamentals
33% growth in earnings, 17% growth in sales.
Technicals
Earnings on August 7 produced a strong gap and follow-through. Has since consolidated very tight and sideways. This is the type of high-tight flag setup preferred for breakouts.
Action
Actionable on strength through 189-190 if the market gives it room. These tight flags after violent moves are the breakouts that get traded. Dependent on the general market cooperating.
$NVDA, Nvidia [WATCHING]
Building a handle, earnings in three days.
Fundamentals
130% growth in earnings last quarter, 85% growth in sales.
Technicals
Broke out of the lower half of the base, then did what it was entitled to do and built a handle. Starting to look like a classic handle structure.
Action
Not actionable ahead of earnings in three days. Ideal trade is the gap-up if the number is strong enough to surprise. Would trade the 2x ETF (NVD) on a clean gap rather than the stock itself. A big positive report would help the AI trade and the broader market at the same time. Entry zone around 225 on a classic breakout if the handle completes cleanly after the report.
$HPE, Hewlett Packard Enterprise [WATCHING]
Pulled back to the 21-day after a strong run, cup-and-handle forming.
Fundamentals
108% growth in earnings last quarter, 41% growth in sales.
Technicals
Bought on August 3, took partial profits on the way up, then cut the remainder just under the 21-day. Stock is back above the 21-day now. Starting to look cup-and-handle-ish.
Action
Potential to get back involved if the AI trade stabilizes. Starter position around 56 if it starts working higher. Key level is 64. Would rather see it prove itself through these levels than force a full position early.
$IBIT, iShares Bitcoin Trust [WATCHING]
Strong three-day thrust after months of basing.
Fundamentals
None. Pure Bitcoin proxy.
Technicals
Based sideways since June, mostly below the moving averages. Did not tighten before the move. Broke a downward trendline and has now put in three strong days, trading above all key moving averages.
Action
On the radar. Ideal entry is after some sideways consolidation that digests the recent gains. Wait for tight trading between buyers and sellers, then a move higher. No pivot yet. Wait and see.
$HOOD, Robinhood Markets [WATCHING]
Cup forming, strong Friday move with Bitcoin.
Fundamentals
48% growth in earnings last quarter, 35% growth in sales.
Technicals
Building a cup. Strong 13% move on Friday aligned with the Bitcoin surge. Now on the radar for the same reason IBIT is.
Action
Wait and see. Looking for sideways or a neat short consolidation after the thrust to give a proper entry. Same risk-management logic as the Bitcoin ETF: need digestion before the next leg.
SpaceX [WATCHING]
Deep cup post-IPO, testing the 150 level.
Fundamentals
No earnings growth reported. 92% growth in sales last quarter.
Technicals
Deep cup forming since the IPO. Ran into resistance at 150 twice and got rejected. Pulled in, found support, and is back above the 21-day.
Action
Alert at 150. Clean break through 150 is the entry, size light depending on the market. Bear case shared by others points to a breakdown below 130 and potentially under 104. Bull case is the 150 break. Waiting for the stock to decide.
Honorable Mentions
$LLY — Sideways action with an upside reversal; actionable here.
$GCT — Building a bull flag with entry on a breakout above 52; very strong technical action.
$TEM — Strong week, put on the radar; wait and see, no action right now.
$FCX — Strong gap-up; if you trade metals, high of the gap-up day is the entry and low of the gap-up day is the stop.
$ERX — Oil looking extremely strong; way to play energy if you like the space, but highly susceptible to headline risk.
$SOFI — Building a very long base below the 200-day; put on the watchlist as a potential EP candidate if a catalyst appears. Earnings are solid.
$PURR — Three strong days last week, aligned with crypto; power on the radar, looking for consolidation.
$MRK — Strong gap-up and biotech story (Moderna partner angle); gap-day high at 150.35 is the entry if you want biotech exposure beyond Natera.
$GH — Strong move off the 50-day that has consolidated well; actionable around 175 starter / 177 full. Sales growth is solid even if earnings are not.
Closing Thought
The indexes are the governor. When they are trading below key moving averages, full blast on margin is a recipe for getting put in a hole that takes a long time to climb out of. Keep stops where they need to be, take the quick losses, and let the winners run when the tape actually cooperates. Smaller size until the Nasdaq gives us the trend back is the disciplined play right now.
See you on the other side of the open.
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